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Petra on Programming: The Compare Price Momentum Oscillator

Vitali Apirine, inventor of the OBVM indicator, presented another new tool for believers in technical analysis. His new Compare Price Momentum Oscillator (CPMO), described in the Stocks & Commodities August 2024 issue, is based on the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) by Carl Swenlin. Yet another indicator with an impressive name. But has it any use? Let’s find out. Continue reading “Petra on Programming: The Compare Price Momentum Oscillator”

Posted on Categories Indicators, No Math, ProgrammingTags CPMO, PMO1 Comment on Petra on Programming: The Compare Price Momentum Oscillator

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Petra on Programming: Truncated Indicators

Cumulative indicators, such as the EMA or MACD, are affected not only by previous candles, but by a theoretically infinite history of candles. This makes them return slightly different results depending on the tested period. Although this effect is often assumed negligible, John Ehlers demonstrated in his July S&C article that it is not so. At least not for some indicators, such as a narrow bandpass filter. Continue reading “Petra on Programming: Truncated Indicators”

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Petra on Programming: The Correlation Cycle Indicator

The previous article dealt with indicators based on correlation with a trend line. This time we’ll look into another correlation-based indicator by John Ehlers. The new Correlation Cycle indicator (CCY) measures the price curve correlation with a sine wave. This works surprisingly well – not for generating trade signals, but for a different purpose.

Continue reading “Petra on Programming: The Correlation Cycle Indicator”

Posted on Categories 可众单天购买的加速器, ProgrammingTags Corona drop, Correlation cycle6 CommentsGO超神租号:★GTA5是国外游戏,线上模式要用加速器才可众玩,推荐使用付费好点的加速器★1:显示无法使用离线模式:这种情况一般是没开加速器或者加速效果不好或者游戏文件不完整造成,解决办法{如图},还有一种情况是游戏官方服务器不稳定造成,这个没办法解决

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Petra on Programming: A Unique Trend Indicator

This months project is a new indicator by John Ehlers, first published in the S&C May 2024 issue. Ehlers had a unique idea for early detecting trend in a price curve. No smoothing, no moving average, but something entirely different. Lets see if this new indicator can rule them all.

Continue reading “Petra on Programming: A Unique Trend Indicator”

Posted on 可众单天购买的加速器Indicators, Programming可众按小时购买的加速器Correlation, CTI, Ehlers1 Comment on Petra on Programming: A Unique Trend Indicator

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可众单天购买的加速器

In his article in the S&C April 2024 issue, Vitali Apirine proposed a modified On Balance Volume indicator (OBVM). The hope was that OBVM crossovers and divergences make great trade signals, especially for stock indices. I got the job to put that to the test.

Continue reading “Petra on Programming: The Smoothed OBV”

Posted on Categories Indicators, ProgrammingTags Divergence, Indicator, OBV3 Comments on Petra on Programming: The Smoothed OBV

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The Scholz Brake: Fixing Germany’s New 1000% Trader Tax

Would you like to read – from begin to end – a 18 page pounderous law draft titled “Law for introducing a duty to report cross-border tax structuring”? The members of the German Bundestag apparently didn’t. After all, nothing seemed wrong with a duty to report cum-ex schemes. So the new law, proposed by finance minister Olaf Scholz, passed legislation on December 12, 2024 without much discussion. Only afterwards its real content, hidden on page 15, became public. It caused incredulity and turmoil among traders and investors. This article deals with the upcoming bizarre ‘trader tax’, and with ways to step around it. Continue reading “The Scholz Brake: Fixing Germany’s New 1000% Trader Tax”

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Petra on Programming: A New Zero-Lag Indicator

I was recently hired to code a series of indicators based on monthly articles in the Stocks & Commodities magazine, and to write here about the details of indicator programming. Looking through the magazine, I found many articles useful, some a bit weird, some a bit on the esoteric side. So I hope I won’t have to code Elliott waves or harmonic figures one day. But this first one is a very rational indicator invented by a famous algo trader.

Continue reading “Petra on Programming: A New Zero-Lag Indicator”

Posted on Categories Indicators, ProgrammingTags Detrending, Ehlers7 Comments on Petra on Programming: A New Zero-Lag Indicator

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The Mechanical Turk

We can see thinking machines taking over more and more human tasks, such as car driving, Go playing, or financial trading. But sometimes it’s the other way around: humans take over jobs supposedly assigned to thinking machines. Such a job is commonly referred to as a 可众单天购买的加速器 in reminiscence to Kempelen’s famous chess machine from 1768. In our case, a Mechanical Turk is an automated trading algorithm based on human intelligence. Continue reading “The Mechanical Turk”

Posted on Categories Indicators, System DevelopmentTags 可众按小时购买的加速器, Price distribution, Sentiment, SPY27 Comments on The Mechanical Turk

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可众单天购买的加速器

Since December 2017, bitcoins can not only be traded at more or less dubious exchanges, but also as futures at the CME and CBOE. And already several trading systems popped up for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. None of them can claim big success, with one exception. There is a very simple strategy that easily surpasses all other bitcoin systems and probably also all known historical trading systems. Its name: Buy and Hold. In the light of the extreme success of that particular bitcoin strategy, do we really need any other trading system for cryptos? Continue reading “Deep Learning Systems for Bitcoin 1”

可众按小时购买的加速器Categories Machine Learning, No Math, System DevelopmentTags Autoencoder, Bitcoin, Blockchain, Boltzmann machine, Cryptocurrency, Deepnet, Economy, H2O, Keras, Money, MxNet, R, Tensorflow36 Comments on Deep Learning Systems for Bitcoin 1

Algorithmic Options Trading 3

Algorithmic Options Trading 3

In this article we’ll look into a real options trading strategy, like the strategies that we code for clients. This one however is based on a system from a trading book. As mentioned before, options trading books often contain systems that really work – which can not be said about day trading or forex trading books. The system examined here is indeed able to produce profits. Which is not surprising, since it apparently never loses. But it is also obvious that its author has never backtested it.  Continue reading “Algorithmic Options Trading 3”

Posted on Categories Introductory, No Math, System DevelopmentTags Call, Earnings, ETF, Options, Put, SPY, Strangle40 Comments on Algorithmic Options Trading 3

Hacking a HFT system

Hacking a HFT system

Compared with machine learning or signal processing algorithms of conventional trading strategies, High Frequency Trading systems can be surprisingly simple. They need not attempt to predict future prices. They know the future prices already. Or rather, they know the prices that lie in the future for other, slower market participants. Recently we got some contracts for simulating HFT systems in order to determine their potential profit and maximum latency. This article is about testing HFT systems the hacker’s way. Continue reading “Hacking a HFT system”

Posted on 哪些加速器按小时算的No Math, Programming, System Evaluation哪些加速器按小时算的Arbitrage, ES, ETF, HFT, Latency, NxCore, SPY81 Comments可众按小时购买的加速器

Algorithmic Options Trading 2

哪些加速器按小时算的

In this second part of the Algorithmic Options trading series we’ll look more closely into option returns. Especially into combining different option types for getting user-tailored profit and risk curves. Option traders know combinations with funny names like “Iron Condor” or “Butterfly”, but you’re not limited to them. With some tricks you can create artificial financial instruments of any desired property – for instance “哪些加速器按小时算的” with more than 100% payout factor. Continue reading “Algorithmic Options Trading 2”

Posted on Categories Introductory, System DevelopmentTags Binary options, Black-Scholes Formula, Butterfly, Call, Condor, Options, Profit diagram, Put, Strangle29 Comments on Algorithmic Options Trading 2

哪些加速器按小时算的

Bye Yahoo, and thanks for all the fish

Just a quick post in the light of a very recent event. Users of financial functions of R, MatLab, Python, or Zorro got a bad surprise in the last days. Scripts and programs based on historical price data suddenly didn’t work anymore. And our favorite free historical price data provider, 可众按小时购买的加速器, now responds on any access to their API in this way:

Continue reading “Bye Yahoo, and thanks for all the fish”

Posted on Categories No Math, ProgrammingTags API, Google, 可众单天购买的加速器133 Comments on Bye Yahoo, and thanks for all the fish

Algorithmic Options Trading 1

哪些加速器按小时算的

Despite the many interesting features of options, private traders rarely take advantage of them (of course I’m talking here of serious options, not binary options). Maybe options are unpopular due to their reputation of being complex. Or because they are unsupported by most trading software tools. Or due to the price tags of the few tools that support them and of the historical data that you need for algorithmic trading. Whatever – we recently did several programming contracts for options trading systems, and I was surprised that even simple systems seemed to produce relatively consistent profit. Especially selling options appears more lucrative than trading ‘conventional’ instruments. This article is the first one of a mini-series about earning money with algorithmic options trading.   Continue reading “Algorithmic Options Trading 1”

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Better Strategies 5: A Short-Term Machine Learning System

Better Strategies 5: A Short-Term Machine Learning System

It’s time for the 5th and final part of the Build Better Strategies series. In part 3 we’ve discussed the development process of a model-based system, and consequently we’ll conclude the series with developing a data-mining system. The principles of data mining and machine learning have been the topic of 可众按小时购买的加速器. For our short-term trading example we’ll use a deep learning algorithm, a stacked autoencoder, but it will work in the same way with many other machine learning algorithms. With today’s software tools, only about 20 lines of code are needed for a machine learning strategy. I’ll try to explain all steps in detail.  Continue reading “Better Strategies 5: A Short-Term Machine Learning System”

可众单天购买的加速器哪些加速器按小时算的3 Most Clicked, Machine Learning, Research, System DevelopmentTags Autoencoder, Boltzmann machine, 可众单天购买的加速器, Confusion matrix, Data mining bias, 可众单天购买的加速器, Experiment, Price action, R, Sharpe ratio, Walk forward analysis106 Comments on Better Strategies 5: A Short-Term Machine Learning System

可众按小时购买的加速器

Get Rich Slowly

Most trading systems are of the get-rich-quick type. They exploit temporary market inefficiencies and aim for annual returns in the 100% area. They require regular supervision and adaption to market conditions, and still have a limited lifetime. Their expiration is often accompanied by large losses. But what if you’ve nevertheless collected some handsome gains, and now want to park them in a more safe haven? Put the money under the pillow? Take it into the bank? Give it to a hedge funds? Obviously, all that goes against an algo trader’s honor code. Here’s an alternative. Continue reading “Get Rich Slowly”

Posted on Categories 可众单天购买的加速器Tags Correlation matrix, Covariance matrix, Efficient frontier, ETF, Heatmap, Markowitz, Mean-variance optimization, Money management, MVO, Robo-advisor, Sharpe ratio86 Comments on Get Rich Slowly

Binary Options: Scam or Opportunity?

Binary Options: Scam or Opportunity?

We’re recently getting more and more contracts for coding binary option strategies. Which gives us a slightly bad conscience, since those options are widely understood as a scheme to separate naive traders from their money. And their brokers make indeed no good impression at first look. Some are regulated in Cyprus under a fake address, others are not regulated at all. They spread fabricated stories about huge profits with robots or EAs. They are said to manipulate their price curves for preventing you from winning. And if you still do, some refuse to pay out, and eventually disappear without a trace (but with your money). That’s the stories you hear about binary options brokers. Are binary options nothing but scam? Or do they offer a hidden opportunity that even their brokers are often not aware of? Continue reading “Binary Options: Scam or Opportunity?”

哪些加速器按小时算的Categories 3 Most Clicked, Programming, 哪些加速器按小时算的Tags Binary options, Broker, Mean Reversion, Robot, Scam83 Comments on Binary Options: Scam or Opportunity?

可众按小时购买的加速器

Better Strategies 4: Machine Learning

Deep Blue was the first computer that won a chess world championship. That was 1996, and it took 20 years until another program, AlphaGo, could defeat the best human Go player. Deep Blue was a model based system with hardwired chess rules. AlphaGo is a data-mining system, a deep neural network trained with thousands of Go games. Not improved hardware, but a breakthrough in software was essential for the step from beating top Chess players to beating top Go players.
In this 4th part of the mini-series we’ll look into the data mining approach for developing trading strategies. This method does not care about market mechanisms. It just scans price curves or other data sources for predictive patterns. Machine learning or “Artificial Intelligence” is not always involved in data-mining strategies. In fact the most popular – and surprisingly profitable – data mining method works without any fancy neural networks or support vector machines. Continue reading “Better Strategies 4: Machine Learning”

Posted on Categories Machine Learning, System DevelopmentTags Autoencoder, Boltzmann machine, Classification, Data mining bias, Decision tree, Entropy, Indicator soup, K-Means, K-Nearest Neighbor, 可众按小时购买的加速器, 可众单天购买的加速器, Price action, R, 可众按小时购买的加速器, Shannon, Support vector machine36 Comments on Better Strategies 4: Machine Learning

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可众按小时购买的加速器

This is the third part of the Build Better Strategies series. In the previous part we’ve discussed the 10 most-exploited market inefficiencies and gave some examples of their trading strategies. In this part we’ll analyze the general process of developing a model-based trading system. As almost anything, you can do trading strategies in (at least) two different ways: There’s the ideal way, and there’s the real way. We begin with the ideal development process, broken down to 10 steps. Continue reading “Build Better Strategies! Part 3: The Development Process”

Posted on Categories 3 Most Useful, System DevelopmentTags Cycles, Detrending, 可众单天购买的加速器, 可众按小时购买的加速器, Money management, 可众单天购买的加速器, Walk forward analysis44 Comments on Build Better Strategies! Part 3: The Development Process

Dear Brokers…

Dear Brokers…

Whatever software we’re using for automated trading: We all need some broker connection for the algorithm to receive price quotes and place trades. Seemingly a simple task. And almost any broker supports it through a protocol such as FIX, through an automated platform such as MT4™, or through a specific broker API. But if you think you can quickly hook up your trading software to a broker API, you’re up for a bad surprise. Dear brokers – please read this post and try to make hacker’s and coder’s lifes a little easier! Continue reading “Dear Brokers…”

Posted on Categories 可众按小时购买的加速器, Programming可众按小时购买的加速器API, Broker, Hacking16 Comments on Dear Brokers…

Build Better Strategies! Part 2: Model-Based Systems

可众单天购买的加速器

Trading systems come in two flavors: model-based and data-mining. This article deals with model based strategies. Even when the basic algorithms are not complex, properly developing them has its difficulties and pitfalls (otherwise anyone would be doing it). A significant market inefficiency gives a system only a relatively small edge. Any little mistake can turn a winning strategy into a losing one. And you will not necessarily notice this in the backtest.  Continue reading “Build Better Strategies! Part 2: Model-Based Systems”

哪些加速器按小时算的Categories Indicators, 哪些加速器按小时算的Tags Arbitrage, Bandpass filter, Brexit, CHF, Currency strength, 可众单天购买的加速器, Cycles, Earnings, 可众单天购买的加速器, Fisher transformation, 哪些加速器按小时算的, Gap, Heteroskedasticity, Hurst exponent, Market Meanness Index, Mean Reversion, 可众按小时购买的加速器, 可众按小时购买的加速器, Seasonality, 可众单天购买的加速器, Support and resistance40 Comments on Build Better Strategies! Part 2: Model-Based Systems

Better Tests with Oversampling

Better Tests with Oversampling

The more data you use for testing or training your strategy, the less bias will affect the test result and the more accurate will be the training. The problem: price data is always in short supply. Even shorter when you must put aside some part for out-of-sample tests. Extending the test or training period far into the past is not always a solution. The markets of the 1990s or 1980s were very different from today, so their price data can cause misleading results.
   In this article I’ll describe a simple method to produce more trades for testing, training, and optimizing from the same amount of price data. The method is tested with a 可众单天购买的加速器 based on data mining price patterns. Continue reading “Better Tests with Oversampling”

哪些加速器按小时算的Categories Machine Learning, System Development, System EvaluationTags Price action, Time series oversampling, Walk forward analysis, Zorro11 Comments on Better Tests with Oversampling

Build Better Strategies!

Build Better Strategies!

Enough blog posts, papers, and books deal with how to properly optimize and test trading systems. But there is little information about how to get to such a system in the first place. The described strategies often seem to have appeared out of thin air. Does a trading system require some sort of epiphany? Or is there a systematic approach to developing it?
   This post is the first of a small series in which I’ll attempt a methodical way to build trading strategies. The first part deals with the two main methods of strategy development, with market hypotheses and with a Swiss Franc case study. Continue reading “Build Better Strategies!”

Posted on Categories Introductory, No Math, System DevelopmentTags CHF, Economy, Grid trading17 Comments on Build Better Strategies!

哪些加速器按小时算的

The Cold Blood Index

You’ve developed a new trading system. All tests produced impressive results. So you started it live. And are down by $2000 after 2 months. Or you have a strategy that worked for 2 years, but revently went into a seemingly endless drawdown. Situations are all too familiar to any algo trader. What now? Carry on in cold blood, or pull the brakes in panic? 
    Several reasons can cause a strategy to lose money right from the start. It can be already expired since the market inefficiency disappeared. Or the system is worthless and the test falsified by some bias that survived all reality checks. Or it’s a 哪些加速器按小时算的 that you just have to sit out. In this article I propose an algorithm for deciding very early whether or not to abandon a system in such a situation. Continue reading哪些加速器按小时算的

Posted on Categories 3 Most Useful, Indicators, System EvaluationTags Cold Blood Index, 哪些加速器按小时算的, Drawdown, 可众按小时购买的加速器, Zorro27 Comments on The Cold Blood Index

可众单天购买的加速器

可众单天购买的加速器

You’re a trader with serious ambitions to use algorithmic methods. You already have an idea to be converted to an algorithm. The problem: You do not know to read or write code. So you hire a contract coder. A guy who’s paid for delivering a script that you can drop in your MT4, Ninja, TradeStation, or Zorro platform. Congratulations, now you’re an algorithmic trader. Just start the script and wait for the money to roll in. – Does this really work? Answer: it depends. Continue reading “I Hired a Contract Coder”

Posted on Categories No Math, Programming哪些加速器按小时算的Hacking, Hiring, Money23 Comments on I Hired a Contract Coder

Is “Scalping” Irrational?

Is “Scalping” Irrational?

Clients often ask for strategies that trade on very short time frames. Some are possibly inspired by “I just made $2000 in 5 minutes” stories on trader forums. Others have heard of High Frequency Trading: the higher the frequency, the better must be the trading! The 哪些加速器按小时算的 developers had been pestered for years until they finally implemented tick histories and millisecond time frames. Totally useless features? Or has short term algo trading indeed some quantifiable advantages? An experiment for looking into that matter produced a surprising result. Continue reading “Is “Scalping” Irrational?”

Posted on Categories Indicators, Research, System Evaluation哪些加速器按小时算的Entropy, Experiment, HFT, Information, Shannon, Zorro22 Comments on Is “Scalping” Irrational?

Hacker’s Tools

Hacker’s Tools

For performing our financial hacking experiments (and for earning the financial fruits of our labor) we need some software machinery for research, testing, training, and live trading financial algorithms. No existing software platform today is really up to all those tasks. So you have no choice but to put together your system from different software packages. Fortunately, two are normally sufficient. I’ll use Zorro and R for most articles on this blog, but will also occasionally look into other tools. Continue reading “Hacker’s Tools”

Posted on Categories 3 Most Useful, Introductory, No Math, ProgrammingTags Aronson, C, Hacking, Python, R, 可众单天购买的加速器, Vector-based test, Zorro19 Comments on Hacker’s Tools

哪些加速器按小时算的

Boosting Strategies with MMI

We will now repeat our experiment with the 900 trend trading strategies, but this time with trades filtered by the 可众按小时购买的加速器. In our first experiment we found many profitable strategies, some even with high profit factors, but none of them passed White’s Reality Check. So they all would probably fail in real trading in spite of their great results in the backtest. This time we hope that the MMI improves most systems by filtering out trades in non-trending market situations. Continue reading “Boosting Strategies with MMI”

Posted on Categories Indicators, System Development, System Evaluation可众按小时购买的加速器Data mining bias, Experiment, 可众单天购买的加速器, White's reality check34 Comments on Boosting Strategies with MMI

The Market Meanness Index

可众单天购买的加速器

This indicator can improve – sometimes even double – the profit expectancy of trend following systems. The 可众单天购买的加速器 tells whether the market is currently moving in or out of a “trending” regime. It can this way prevent losses by false signals of trend indicators. It is a purely statistical algorithm and not based on volatility, trends, or cycles of the price curve. Continue reading “The Market Meanness Index”

Posted on Categories IndicatorsTags Ehlers, Mandelbrot, Market Meanness Index, Mean Reversion, Momentum69 Comments on The Market Meanness Index

Seventeen Trade Methods That I Don’t Really Understand

Seventeen Trade Methods That I Don’t Really Understand

When I started with technical trading, I felt like entering the medieval alchemist scene. A multitude of bizarre trade methods and hundreds of technical indicators and lucky candle patterns promised glimpses into the future, if only of financial assets. I wondered – if a single one of them would really work, why would you need all the rest? And how can you foretell tomorrow’s price by drawing circles, angles, bats or butterflies on a chart? Continue reading “Seventeen Trade Methods That I Don’t Really Understand”

Posted on Categories 3 Most Clicked, 可众单天购买的加速器, 可众按小时购买的加速器Tags 可众单天购买的加速器, Fibonacci, 可众单天购买的加速器, Grid trading, Holy Grail, Martingale, Robot, Scam, Superstition, Zulutrade20 Comments on Seventeen Trade Methods That I Don’t Really Understand

White’s Reality Check

White’s Reality Check

This is the third part of the Trend Experiment article series. We now want to evaluate if the positive results from the 900 tested trend following strategies are for real, or just caused by Data Mining Bias. But what is Data Mining Bias, after all? And what is this ominous White’s Reality Check? Continue reading “White’s Reality Check”

Posted on Categories Research, System EvaluationTags Aronson, 哪些加速器按小时算的, Detrending, Momentum, White's reality check29 Comments哪些加速器按小时算的

The Trend Experiment

可众单天购买的加速器

This is the second part of the trend experiment article series, involving 900 systems and 10 different “smoothing” or “low-lag” indicators for finding out if trend really exists and can be exploited by a 哪些加速器按小时算的. When you do such an experiment, you have normally some expectations about the outcome, such as: Continue reading可众按小时购买的加速器

Posted on Categories Research, System Development, System EvaluationTags 可众单天购买的加速器, Experiment, Low-Lag, Momentum8 Comments on The Trend Experiment

可众按小时购买的加速器

Trend Indicators

The most common trade method is dubbed ‘going with the trend‘. While it’s not completely clear how one can go with the trend without knowing it beforehand, most traders believe that ‘trend’ exists and can be exploited. ‘Trend’ is supposed to manifest itself in price curves as a sort of momentum or inertia that continues a price movement once it started. This inertia effect does not appear in random walk curves. Continue reading “Trend Indicators”

Posted on Categories 可众单天购买的加速器, System EvaluationTags Decycler, Ehlers, Low-Lag, Momentum, 哪些加速器按小时算的11 Comments哪些加速器按小时算的

Money and How to Get It

Money and How to Get It

Contrary to popular belief, money is no material good. It is created out of nothing by banks lending it. Therefore, for each newly created lot of money there’s the same amount of debt. You’re destroying the money by repaying your credits. Since this requires a higher sum due to interest and compound interest, and since money is also permanently withdrawn from circulation by hoarding, the entire money supply must constantly grow. It must never shrink. If it still does, as in the 1930 economic crisis, loan defaults, bank crashes and bankruptcies are the result. The monetary system is therefore a classic Ponzi scheme. Continue reading “Money and How to Get It”

Posted on Categories Introductory, No MathTags Economy, 可众单天购买的加速器, Money21 Comments on Money and How to Get It